NDP's Meili hopeful leadership within grasp despite Lingenfelter lead
By James Wood
The StarPhoenix
June 4, 2009
The four contenders are making their final push in an NDP leadership race that -- despite having a presumptive frontrunner since it began -- still maintains a significant element of unpredictability.
As of Wednesday, 54 per cent of about 13,000 eligible voters had cast preferential ballots through the mail, telephone or Internet in advance polling.
The convention starts with delegate registration tonight. Advance voting will continue until Friday evening. Party members who haven't voted beforehand will be able to cast their ballots Saturday at the NDP convention in Regina or in real time by phone or Internet.
Ryan Meili, the Saskatoon doctor who has been an unexpectedly strong presence in the race, believes he has a strong shot at second place behind Dwain Lingenfelter on the first ballot, with the former deputy premier not having a majority to put him over the top.
Meili's scenario for victory then hinges on being the second choice of voters whose top pick has been dropped off the ballot. The candidate in last place on each ballot is dropped.
"I keep saying it's like waiting for Christmas. You have no idea what you're going to open on the sixth of June," said Meili in an interview Wednesday.
"We can track, we can map, we can try and figure out where people are leaning and . . . that's all looking really good, but really, I kind of feel like it's a coin toss."
Lingenfelter, the former cabinet minister turned energy executive, was the first candidate in the race to succeed Lorne Calvert. While his campaign was sidetracked by controversy over 1,100 improper memberships purchased on two Meadow Lake area reserves, Lingenfelter has maintained a strong lead in fundraising, labour backing and support in the Opposition caucus over Meili, Moose Jaw Wakamow MLA Deb Higgins and Regina lawyer Yens Pedersen.
Lingenfelter, like the other candidates, said he is spending his time working the phones in an effort to get members to cast their votes in advance.
While he's taking nothing for granted, he expressed confidence, noting about 60 per cent of his campaign's identified supporters have already voted.
"We're in good shape," Lingenfelter said in an interview. "Each candidate will identify who is supporting them and then the race is on to see if you can get out a higher percentage of your support than others."
University of Saskatchewan political scientist David McGrane said a one-member, one-vote system with large-scale advance voting favours an established well-heeled, well-organized candidate, which theoretically should work for Lingenfelter.
The vast majority of votes will likely be cast before Saturday, which could also make it harder for an anyone-but-Lingenfelter move -- which McGrane noted already exists -- to coalesce on the convention floor, he said.
"These things are always very unpredictable, in terms of leadership races. They're much more unpredictable than general elections because polling is next to impossible to do. It's always hard to see what's going to sway people one way or another," said McGrane.
Pedersen said the nature of the race makes it difficult to gauge what the results will be on Saturday.
"It looks like I'm in the running. It doesn't look like it's going to be a cakewalk for anybody. Beyond that, it's hard to know," he said.
Higgins, who some observers have viewed as a potential compromise candidate as an acceptable alternative for supporters of other contenders, could not be reached for comment.
